Logistic regression trained on 2024 MLB games (n=2,385), validated on 2025 (n=1,692). Features: prior-year team offensive/defensive xwOBA, team-level K% and BB%, starting-pitcher xwOBA-allowed / K% / BB% / barrel-rate, and the de-vigged market line.
Tiers — ELITE confidence ≥ 0.20; STRONG 0.18–0.20; LEAN 0.15–0.18. All three require edge vs market ≥ 2pp and agreement with market direction. POD (Pick of the Day) fires only on slate days when no higher tier clears — it's the top conf+edge eligible game, guaranteeing one bet per day. All plays assumed at $100 stake against closing line.
This is a research tracker, not investment advice.